Valuation Returns-Formulas-Rules of Thumb

What the greatest technology investors say about Valuation Returns-Formulas-Rules of Thumb

VALUATION RETURNS –FORMULAS - RULES OF THUMB POSTS (20 posts)

The following is a list of the post titles by author under this topic.  Scroll further down this page to find the actual blog post by your selected author.   Author’s posts appear in reverse alphabetical order.  For example, following this list, Fred Wilson’s posts appear towards the beginning of the blog page, and Boston Millennia Partners’ posts appear towards the end of the blog page.

BOSTON MILLENNIA PARTNERS  (2 posts)

Boston Millennia Partners:  Early Stage Investing is Far from an Exact Science

Boston Millennia Partners:  Pre & Post-Money Valuation Formulas

JEFFREY BUSSGANG   (1 post)

Jeffrey Bussgang: Relationship between Option Pool Size & Price

CHRIS DIXON   (2 posts)

Chris Dixon:   How Much Seed Money to Raise

Chris Dixon:  Nothing More Dilutive & Morale-Crushing than a Down Round

BRAD FELD   (2 posts)

Brad Feld:  The Math behind the Valuation Calculations

Brad Feld:   Investors Require Employee Stock Options

JOSH KOPELMAN    (2 posts)

Josh Kopelman:  The Unwritten Term on the Term Sheet

Josh Kopelman:   High Valuations Can Limit Exit Opportunities

BABAK NIVI   (1 post)

Babak Nivi:  The Option Pool Lowers your Effective Valuation

BASIL PETERS    (3 posts)

Basil Peters:  Why VC's Block an Exit

Basil Peters:  Angels Need a 20-25%/yr Return

Basil Peters:  When Can You Sell?

MARK SUSTER (5 posts)

Mark Suster:  Be Leary of Too High a Price

Mark Suster:  The VC Assumes there’s an Option Pool

 Mark Suster:   Mark Suster: Valuation-What It Is & Its Ranges

 Mark Suster:   Dilution Benchmarks & Fundraising

Mark Suster:  VCs Want Big Outcomes & May Block a Sale

FRED WILSON   (2 posts) 

Fred Wilson: An Option Pool is about Price

Fred Wilson:  Fred Wilson's Comfort Zones on Fundraising & Valuation

 

 

 

Fred Wilson's Comfort Zones on Fundraising & Valuation

Fred Wilson venture capitalist and Co-Founder Union Square Ventures

“I'm all about “back of the envelope”.  I am old school but these are my comfort zones:

Build product - raise [$] 600k at 3mm post [post-money valuation] 
Build usage - raise [$]1.8mm at 9mm post 
Build company - raise [$] 4mm at 20mm post

I am not in my comfort zone these days.” [Wilson was referring to valuation-wise late 2011 and presumably early 2012 as well.] Fred Wilson Burn rates: How Much?  Comments, Dec. 12,  2011; http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2011/12/burn-rates-how-much.html

An Option Pool is about Price

Fred Wilson venture capitalist and Co-Founder Union Square Ventures

“One [] contentious [] negotiation [point] between an entrepreneur and a VC [], particularly [in] an early stage financing, is the inclusion of an option pool in the pre-money valuation. [] [The] fact [is an option pool] is simply about price.  [Example]:  [] $3.25mm pre-money with no option pool [can be equivalent to] $4mm pre-money with one. [] What an entrepreneur needs to do is find out what the market price for [his] company is with and without an option pool in the number. [Then], the negotiation over this point is [] less contentious.”

“[] [Wilson acknowledges that if] options are counted in the pre-money, entrepreneurs will want commensurately higher valuations to compensate for the additional dilution.”

“[][The] option pool request needs to be reasonable and based on [a] budget.  [Wilson looks for] enough options [in] the "pre-money pool" to fund the hiring and retention needs [] until the next financing.”  Wilson wants an option pool in the pre-money when he invests.  Fred Wilson, Valuation and Option Pool and comments, Nov. 6, 2009;  http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2009/11/valuation-and-option-pool.html#comment-22043449

VCs Want Big Outcomes & May Block a Sale

Mark Suster Partner Upfront Ventures and former entrepreneur

“VCs want big outcomes.  [VCs] will demand a veto right over [a company sale].  [A founder] might be very happy selling [his] business for $9 million and owning 50% of the company.  [A] VC is not necessarily going to be happy getting $3 million for his 33% stake for which he invested $1 million.

[While that’s] a 3x return [] it’s still just $3 million and if the VC has a $300 million [fund] it is just 1% of the money [needed] to reach his “hurdle rate” of when he’s entitled to earn carry (e.g. big bucks).  It’s just too much time to spend [] for such a small total return.  Many VC’s would still let [a founder] sell []” but some would block the sale.  Mark Suster  Do You Really Even Need VC? July 22, 2009; http://www.bothsidesofthetable.com/2009/07/22/do-you-really-even-need-vc/

 

Dilution Benchmarks & Fundraising

Mark Suster Partner Upfront Ventures and former entrepreneur

Negotiations between entrepreneurs and investors include dilution and other fundraising terms.  “[] the “fairway” of [investor’s equity] is 25-33% per round [i.e., entrepreneurs’ dilution]. [] If [the entrepreneur is] “super hot” or “super experienced”, [he] can end up with much less dilution –in some cases 12-15%.  But this is the exception, not the rule.”

“[] [These] dilution numbers don't take an option pool into account [].  Options are additional dilution.”

“[] [Valuation can be driven up] ONLY if there’s [] competition [for] a deal.  [Investors stay honest when entrepreneurs] talk with multiple parties.”

Fundraising also requires considering how many future rounds are needed and expected total future dilution.  It’s not an arbitrary spreadsheet-driven exercise reflecting attaining profitability.  It requires “understanding [industry norms necessary] to build a successful Internet business and where [the company falls] on that spectrum given [its business type].”   Mark Suster,  8 Questions to Help Decide if You Should be Raising Money Now, February 17, 2011 and comments;  http://www.bothsidesofthetable.com/2011/02/17/8-questions-to-help-decide-if-you-should-be-raising-money-now/

 

Mark Suster: Valuation-What It Is & Its Ranges

Mark Suster Partner Upfront Ventures and former entrepreneur

 “Valuation = whatever an investor is willing to pay. Investors want to own 25-33% so it can be determined by how much you raise. [] early investors know how much they want to invest and what the norms are by stages. There are huge variances (and prices go up and down dependent on market conditions), but general guidelines on valuation:

angel: sub $1m
seed $1-$2.5m pre [pre-money valuation]
A round: $2-5m pre. Up to $7-8m for super experienced entrepreneurs
B round $7-12m pre. Outliers can be $20m pre. EXTREME outliers (see: FourSquare) can fetch crazy prices.
C round: 100% dependent on company performance.”

Mark Suster comments from Want to Know How VC’s Calculate Valuation Differently from Founders?, July 22, 2010;  http://www.bothsidesofthetable.com/2010/07/22/want-to-know-how-vcs-calculate-valuation-differently-from-founders/

The VC Assumes there’s an Option Pool

Mark Suster Partner Upfront Ventures and former entrepreneur

“The VC assumes [there will be] an option pool [] to hire and retain talent to grow [the] company. [] The more senior members [the company has], then the [fewer] options [needed] and vice versa.  Industry standard post [the] first round of funding will be 15-20% [for the option pool].  [Suster] say[s] “post” funding because [one will] need more than this amount pre-funding to get to this number after funding. [] 

[It’s standard] that the VC wants the options includ[ed] before [he] funds [].”  The option pool dilutes the founder’s percent ownership, not the investor’s.  The option pool suffers the same percent dilution the founder suffers when a VC invests his money. 

“Note that the term sheet [says “Pre-Money” valuation and nowhere does] the term sheet [say] “true Pre-Money” or “effective Pre-Money”– that’s for [the founder] to calculate.”   True or effective pre-money is based on a lower price/share due to options increasing the number of shares incorporated in the calculation. The result is a lower true pre-money than pre-money, the latter which is also called “nominal” pre-money valuation.  Mark Suster Want to Know How VC’s Calculate Valuation Differently from Founders, July 22, 2010;    http://www.bothsidesofthetable.com/2010/07/22/want-to-know-how-vcs-calculate-valuation-differently-from-founders/

 

Be Leary of Too High a Price

Mark Suster Partner Upfront Ventures and former entrepreneur

 “[] [Suster has] seen a destructive cycle where otherwise interesting companies have been screwed by raising too much money at too high of prices and gotten [] [trapped] when [] markets correct and they got ahead of themselves [on inherent market valuation]. []

[It’s] OK to [] shoot for the “top end of normal” for the market conditions. [] [He] caution[s] entrepreneurs from [] raising money at significantly ABOVE market valuations. []

If [entrepreneurs] haven’t figured out product / market fit and therefore still have a highly risky business [they] run great risks for getting too far ahead [] on valuation. [] [Most] investors won’t want to [][do] a “down round,” which creates tension between them and early investors.

[] [Sophisticated] investors know [a major down round] is fool’s gold.  They get a cheaper price, [] wipe out much founder stock value and [] reissue [founders] new options. [Founders] take the money []” except their incentives get eliminated.

[] He advises “[] us[ing] competition to [][ensure] a fair price [and] rais[ing] a slightly higher round than [] [otherwise for some strategic reserve]. [] [One wants] to show an uptick in valuation [] for new investor confidence and to maintain [early investor relations].”  Mark Suster  Why Startups Should Raise Money at the Top End of Normal,  June 5, 2011;  http://www.bothsidesofthetable.com/2011/06/05/why-startups-should-raise-money-at-the-top-end-of-normal/

 

When Can You Sell?

Basil Peters angel investor and Principal Strategic Exits Corporation

“When can [one] sell? [] [With] M&A [merger & acquisition] exits [] the real threshold is to ‘prove the business model’. [To prove the model] [] a recurring revenue business [] [should show] actual results for: revenue per customer, gross margin per customer, customer lifetime (or churn [i.e., how long one enjoys that customer]) [and] cost of customer acquisition.  In other words, how much is a customer worth and what do[es] [a customer] cost to acquire?

[With that proven model], [] credible projection[s] [can be built] that [show] if: new owners added $X millions of capital, the business would have Y customers and be worth $Z millions.

That’s when [one] can sell [although] there are often additional factors like competitors and market changes. [] As soon as [one] prove[s] the model is often the best time to sell.  [It’s] always best to sell on an upward trend. Sell[ing] on the promise, not the reality [is] often when [one] [gets] the best price.”   Basil Peters, Maximizing Exit Value Angel Capital Assn Annual Summit Workshop Apr. 15, 2009;  http://www.basilpeters.com/Presentations/Maximizing_Exit_Value_20090415_Part_2.pdf , pg 5-10

 

Angels Need a 20-25%/yr Return

Basil Peters angel investor and Principal Strategic Exits Corporation

“[] angels need to get 20% to 25% per year [] the same [return] as a venture fund.  So, if you do the math, [] angels need to make three to five times their money in three to five years.”    Basil Peters, Seed Capital From Angel Investors: Basil Peters, CEO and Fund Manager, Fundamental Technologies II (Part 5);  Jul 7, 2010;  http://www.sramanamitra.com/2010/07/07/seed-capital-from-angel-investors-basil-peters-ceo-and-fund-manager-fundamental-technologies-ii-part-5/

Why VC's Block an Exit

Basil Peters angel investor and Principal Strategic Exits Corporation

“Most entrepreneurs don’t even know that a VC is likely to block an exit when they accept the VC’s money. [] VCs design their investment agreements to give them the power to block exits.”

“[] VCs will almost always block a sale where they only make a 3-4X return on their investment.  This could have easily been a 10X return for the angels and a 100X return for the entrepreneurs.

[] The winners [must] produce at least 10-30X return for the [VC] fund to perform respectably.

[] This propensity to block exits is one of the reasons that every company needs a clear exit strategy before [it approaches its] first investor.”  Basil Peters, How VCs Block Exits, August 28, 2010, http://www.exits.com/blog/how-vcs-block-exits/; Why VCs Will Block Good Exits;  http://www.angelblog.net/Why_VCs_Block_Good_Exits.html

The Option Pool Lowers your Effective Valuation

Babak Nivi Co-Founder AngelList and Venture Hacks and angel investor

“The option pool lowers your effective valuation.  Your investors offered you a[n] $8M pre-money valuation. What they really meant was, “We think your company is worth $6M. But let’s create $2M worth of new options, add that to the value of your company, and call their sum your $8M ‘pre-money valuation’”. [] Slipping the option pool in the pre-money lowers your effective valuation to $6M. The actual value of the company [] is $6M, not $8M. [] The [option ‘shuffle’] puts pre-money [valuation] into your investor’s pocket. [] the option pool only dilutes the common stockholders.  [] [The] investor’s norm is that the option pool goes in the pre-money.”   Nivi recommends using a specific hiring plan to more accurately determine option pool size vs. allocating some arbitrary percentage.  Babak Nivi  The Option Pool Shuffle  April 10, 2007;  http://venturehacks.com/articles/option-pool-shuffle

High Valuations Can Limit Exit Opportunities

Josh Kopelman Partner First Round Capital and former entrepreneur

Kopelman advises that entrepreneurs who “[] try to maximize valuation [] in many cases [] might be shortsighted” because high valuations can limit exit opportunities.  “[] too many founders are not aware that they are shutting off the majority of exits -- and therefore increasing risks -- when they accept a high valuation.”  “[] the “unwritten term in the term sheet” [means] few VC’s will willingly part with a “winning company” (i.e., a company that is executing/performing well) for less than a 10x return.”  Thus, a VC could block an exit that could have been a fabulous payout for entrepreneurs and angels.   Josh Kopelman The Unintentional Moonshot, July 10, 2007, http://redeye.firstround.com/2007/07/the-unintention.html;  When the music stops... March 10, 2006;  http://redeye.firstround.com/2006/03/as_a_little_kid.html

The Unwritten Term on the Term Sheet

Josh Kopelman Partner First Round Capital and former entrepreneur

 “When a company gets a term sheet with a high valuation, [the entrepreneur] need[s] to pay attention to the unwritten term on the term sheet.”  The entrepreneur should be ok “with [an] exit multiple that would generate [] returns [] to satisfy [] VC[‘s]. While every situation is unique, here's a simple rule of thumb:

Series A – 10X
Series B – 4-7X
Series C – 2-4X ”

“[] the “unwritten term in the term sheet” [means] few VC’s will willingly part with a “winning company” (i.e., a company that is executing/performing well) for less than a 10x return.”  Josh Kopelman The Unintentional Moonshot, July 10, 2007, http://redeye.firstround.com/2007/07/the-unintention.html; file Josh Kopelman Unintent Moonst Unwrt;      http://redeye.firstround.com/2006/03/as_a_little_kid.html

Investors Require Employee Stock Options

Brad Feld venture capitalist and Managing Director Foundry Group

“Investors will almost always require that the company set aside additional shares for a stock option plan for employees. Investors will assume and require that these shares are set aside prior to the investment, thus diluting the founders.   If there are multiple investors, they must be treated as one in the calculations [].”  Brad Feld, Venture Capital Deal Algebra , July 7, 2004;   

http://www.feld.com/wp/archives/2004/07/venture-capital-deal-algebra.html

 

The Math behind the Valuation Calculations

Brad Feld venture capitalist and Managing Director Foundry Group

“I’ve found that even sophisticated entrepreneurs didn’t necessar[ily] grasp how valuation math (or “deal algebra”) worked. [] Recognize that this is about the math behind the calculations, not the philosophy of valuation [].

[] The key trick to remember is that share price is easier to calculate with pre-money [valuation] numbers, and fraction of ownership is easier to calculate with post-money [valuation] numbers; you switch back and forth by adding or subtracting the amount of the investment. It is also important to note that the share price is the same before and after the deal [].”Brad Feld, Venture Capital Deal Algebra, July 7, 2004;  http://www.feld.com/wp/archives/2004/07/venture-capital-deal-algebra.html

Nothing More Dilutive & Morale-Crushing than a Down Round

Chris Dixon General Partner Andreessen Horowitz, angel investor and former entrepreneur

“[] if [an entrepreneur] expect[s] to raise more money (and [he] should expect to), make sure [the] post-money valuation is one that [he’ll] be able to “beat” [exceed] in [the] next round.  There is nothing more dilutive and morale crushing than a down round.” Chris Dixon, Ideal first round funding terms August 16, 2009;  http://cdixon.org/2009/08/16/ideal-first-round-funding-terms/

How Much Seed Money to Raise

Chris Dixon General Partner Andreessen Horowitz, angel investor and former entrepreneur

The short answer for how much seed money to raise is “[] enough to get [a] startup to an accretive milestone plus some fudge factor” of say, a 50% round size increase.

““Accretive milestone” [means] getting [a] company [where it] can raise money at a higher valuation” and is a function of market conditions and the startup’s nature.  “As a rule of thumb, [] a successful Series A is one where good VCs invest at a pre-money [valuation] that is at least twice the post-money of the seed round.  So if [a] seed round [] raised $1M at $2M pre ($3M post-money valuation), [] the Series A [] should be [] a minimum of $6M pre (but hopefully [] significantly higher).

The worst thing a seed-stage company can do is raise too little money and only reach part way to a milestone.  Pitching new investors in that case is very hard; often the only way to keep the company alive is to get the existing investors to reinvest at the last round valuation (“reopen the last round”).  The second worst thing [] is rais[ing] too much money in the seed round [], hence taking too much dilution too soon.”

A startup should determine its expected biggest risk and how to eliminate that risk.  “For consumer internet companies [and SMBs (small/medium businesses)], eliminating the biggest risk almost always means getting “traction” – user growth, engagement, etc.[] For online advertising companies you probably want revenues.  If [] selling to enterprises you probably want [] credible beta customers.  

The biggest mistake founders make is thinking that building a product by itself will be perceived as an accretive milestone.  Building a product is only accretive [] where there is significant technical risk []”.  Chris Dixon What’s the right amount of seed money to raise?  Dec. 28, 2009; http://cdixon.org/2009/12/28/whats-the-right-amount-of-seed-money-to-raise/

 

Relationship between Option Pool Size & Price

Jeffrey Bussgang  venture capitalist and General Partner Flybridge Capital Partners and former entrepreneur 

 “This relationship between option pool size and price isn’t always understood by entrepreneurs, but is well understood by VCs.”  Bussgang lost a deal because the founder believed he got a better price (higher pre-money valuation) from a competing venture capitalist.  However because Bussgang’s competitor required a larger option pool, the founder received less stock than under Bussgang’s offer.  The founder took the competitor’s deal because he didn’t understand how the option pool calculation affected his ownership.

“[In response, Bussgang’s firm instituted a policy] to talk about the “promote” for the founding team rather than just the “pre”[-money valuation].  The “promote” [] is the founding team’s ownership percentage multiplied by the post-money valuation.”  The “promote” offers an “apples-to-apples” comparison of competing offers even if one offer has a lower pre-money valuation and  smaller option pool.  Jeffrey Bussgang, Mastering the VC Game –A VC Insider Reveals How to get from Start-up to IPO on your terms book, pg 131-133, copyright 2010

Pre & Post-Money Valuation Formulas

Boston Millennia Partners venture capital firm

“[Pre-money valuation] is the estimated [] value of the company as it stands prior to any purchase of equity. []

Pre-money Valuation +Invested Capital= Post-money Valuation

Price per Share = Pre-Money Valuation / Pre-Money Shares”

 A. Dana Callow, Jr. Managing General Partner, Boston Millennia Partners, Michael Larsen, Senior Associate, Life Sciences; paper called Understanding Valuation: A Venture Investor’s Perspective;  http://www.millenniapartners.com/_documents/whitepaper/WhitePaperAttachment6.pdf