Valuation Returns-Formulas-Rules of Thumb

What the greatest technology investors say about Valuation Returns-Formulas-Rules of Thumb

VCs Want Big Outcomes & May Block a Sale

Mark Suster Partner Upfront Ventures and former entrepreneur

“VCs want big outcomes.  [VCs] will demand a veto right over [a company sale].  [A founder] might be very happy selling [his] business for $9 million and owning 50% of the company.  [A] VC is not necessarily going to be happy getting $3 million for his 33% stake for which he invested $1 million.

[While that’s] a 3x return [] it’s still just $3 million and if the VC has a $300 million [fund] it is just 1% of the money [needed] to reach his “hurdle rate” of when he’s entitled to earn carry (e.g. big bucks).  It’s just too much time to spend [] for such a small total return.  Many VC’s would still let [a founder] sell []” but some would block the sale.  Mark Suster  Do You Really Even Need VC? July 22, 2009; http://www.bothsidesofthetable.com/2009/07/22/do-you-really-even-need-vc/

 

Dilution Benchmarks & Fundraising

Mark Suster Partner Upfront Ventures and former entrepreneur

Negotiations between entrepreneurs and investors include dilution and other fundraising terms.  “[] the “fairway” of [investor’s equity] is 25-33% per round [i.e., entrepreneurs’ dilution]. [] If [the entrepreneur is] “super hot” or “super experienced”, [he] can end up with much less dilution –in some cases 12-15%.  But this is the exception, not the rule.”

“[] [These] dilution numbers don't take an option pool into account [].  Options are additional dilution.”

“[] [Valuation can be driven up] ONLY if there’s [] competition [for] a deal.  [Investors stay honest when entrepreneurs] talk with multiple parties.”

Fundraising also requires considering how many future rounds are needed and expected total future dilution.  It’s not an arbitrary spreadsheet-driven exercise reflecting attaining profitability.  It requires “understanding [industry norms necessary] to build a successful Internet business and where [the company falls] on that spectrum given [its business type].”   Mark Suster,  8 Questions to Help Decide if You Should be Raising Money Now, February 17, 2011 and comments;  http://www.bothsidesofthetable.com/2011/02/17/8-questions-to-help-decide-if-you-should-be-raising-money-now/

 

The Option Pool Lowers your Effective Valuation

Babak Nivi Co-Founder AngelList and Venture Hacks and angel investor

“The option pool lowers your effective valuation.  Your investors offered you a[n] $8M pre-money valuation. What they really meant was, “We think your company is worth $6M. But let’s create $2M worth of new options, add that to the value of your company, and call their sum your $8M ‘pre-money valuation’”. [] Slipping the option pool in the pre-money lowers your effective valuation to $6M. The actual value of the company [] is $6M, not $8M. [] The [option ‘shuffle’] puts pre-money [valuation] into your investor’s pocket. [] the option pool only dilutes the common stockholders.  [] [The] investor’s norm is that the option pool goes in the pre-money.”   Nivi recommends using a specific hiring plan to more accurately determine option pool size vs. allocating some arbitrary percentage.  Babak Nivi  The Option Pool Shuffle  April 10, 2007;  http://venturehacks.com/articles/option-pool-shuffle

Nothing More Dilutive & Morale-Crushing than a Down Round

Chris Dixon General Partner Andreessen Horowitz, angel investor and former entrepreneur

“[] if [an entrepreneur] expect[s] to raise more money (and [he] should expect to), make sure [the] post-money valuation is one that [he’ll] be able to “beat” [exceed] in [the] next round.  There is nothing more dilutive and morale crushing than a down round.” Chris Dixon, Ideal first round funding terms August 16, 2009;  http://cdixon.org/2009/08/16/ideal-first-round-funding-terms/