Valuation Returns-Formulas-Rules of Thumb

What the greatest technology investors say about Valuation Returns-Formulas-Rules of Thumb

Fred Wilson's Comfort Zones on Fundraising & Valuation

Fred Wilson venture capitalist and Co-Founder Union Square Ventures

“I'm all about “back of the envelope”.  I am old school but these are my comfort zones:

Build product - raise [$] 600k at 3mm post [post-money valuation] 
Build usage - raise [$]1.8mm at 9mm post 
Build company - raise [$] 4mm at 20mm post

I am not in my comfort zone these days.” [Wilson was referring to valuation-wise late 2011 and presumably early 2012 as well.] Fred Wilson Burn rates: How Much?  Comments, Dec. 12,  2011; http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2011/12/burn-rates-how-much.html

An Option Pool is about Price

Fred Wilson venture capitalist and Co-Founder Union Square Ventures

“One [] contentious [] negotiation [point] between an entrepreneur and a VC [], particularly [in] an early stage financing, is the inclusion of an option pool in the pre-money valuation. [] [The] fact [is an option pool] is simply about price.  [Example]:  [] $3.25mm pre-money with no option pool [can be equivalent to] $4mm pre-money with one. [] What an entrepreneur needs to do is find out what the market price for [his] company is with and without an option pool in the number. [Then], the negotiation over this point is [] less contentious.”

“[] [Wilson acknowledges that if] options are counted in the pre-money, entrepreneurs will want commensurately higher valuations to compensate for the additional dilution.”

“[][The] option pool request needs to be reasonable and based on [a] budget.  [Wilson looks for] enough options [in] the "pre-money pool" to fund the hiring and retention needs [] until the next financing.”  Wilson wants an option pool in the pre-money when he invests.  Fred Wilson, Valuation and Option Pool and comments, Nov. 6, 2009;  http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2009/11/valuation-and-option-pool.html#comment-22043449

Mark Suster: Valuation-What It Is & Its Ranges

Mark Suster Partner Upfront Ventures and former entrepreneur

 “Valuation = whatever an investor is willing to pay. Investors want to own 25-33% so it can be determined by how much you raise. [] early investors know how much they want to invest and what the norms are by stages. There are huge variances (and prices go up and down dependent on market conditions), but general guidelines on valuation:

angel: sub $1m
seed $1-$2.5m pre [pre-money valuation]
A round: $2-5m pre. Up to $7-8m for super experienced entrepreneurs
B round $7-12m pre. Outliers can be $20m pre. EXTREME outliers (see: FourSquare) can fetch crazy prices.
C round: 100% dependent on company performance.”

Mark Suster comments from Want to Know How VC’s Calculate Valuation Differently from Founders?, July 22, 2010;  http://www.bothsidesofthetable.com/2010/07/22/want-to-know-how-vcs-calculate-valuation-differently-from-founders/

The Unwritten Term on the Term Sheet

Josh Kopelman Partner First Round Capital and former entrepreneur

 “When a company gets a term sheet with a high valuation, [the entrepreneur] need[s] to pay attention to the unwritten term on the term sheet.”  The entrepreneur should be ok “with [an] exit multiple that would generate [] returns [] to satisfy [] VC[‘s]. While every situation is unique, here's a simple rule of thumb:

Series A – 10X
Series B – 4-7X
Series C – 2-4X ”

“[] the “unwritten term in the term sheet” [means] few VC’s will willingly part with a “winning company” (i.e., a company that is executing/performing well) for less than a 10x return.”  Josh Kopelman The Unintentional Moonshot, July 10, 2007, http://redeye.firstround.com/2007/07/the-unintention.html; file Josh Kopelman Unintent Moonst Unwrt;      http://redeye.firstround.com/2006/03/as_a_little_kid.html

How Much Seed Money to Raise

Chris Dixon General Partner Andreessen Horowitz, angel investor and former entrepreneur

The short answer for how much seed money to raise is “[] enough to get [a] startup to an accretive milestone plus some fudge factor” of say, a 50% round size increase.

““Accretive milestone” [means] getting [a] company [where it] can raise money at a higher valuation” and is a function of market conditions and the startup’s nature.  “As a rule of thumb, [] a successful Series A is one where good VCs invest at a pre-money [valuation] that is at least twice the post-money of the seed round.  So if [a] seed round [] raised $1M at $2M pre ($3M post-money valuation), [] the Series A [] should be [] a minimum of $6M pre (but hopefully [] significantly higher).

The worst thing a seed-stage company can do is raise too little money and only reach part way to a milestone.  Pitching new investors in that case is very hard; often the only way to keep the company alive is to get the existing investors to reinvest at the last round valuation (“reopen the last round”).  The second worst thing [] is rais[ing] too much money in the seed round [], hence taking too much dilution too soon.”

A startup should determine its expected biggest risk and how to eliminate that risk.  “For consumer internet companies [and SMBs (small/medium businesses)], eliminating the biggest risk almost always means getting “traction” – user growth, engagement, etc.[] For online advertising companies you probably want revenues.  If [] selling to enterprises you probably want [] credible beta customers.  

The biggest mistake founders make is thinking that building a product by itself will be perceived as an accretive milestone.  Building a product is only accretive [] where there is significant technical risk []”.  Chris Dixon What’s the right amount of seed money to raise?  Dec. 28, 2009; http://cdixon.org/2009/12/28/whats-the-right-amount-of-seed-money-to-raise/