Valuation Returns-Formulas-Rules of Thumb

What the greatest technology investors say about Valuation Returns-Formulas-Rules of Thumb

VCs Want Big Outcomes & May Block a Sale

Mark Suster Partner Upfront Ventures and former entrepreneur

“VCs want big outcomes.  [VCs] will demand a veto right over [a company sale].  [A founder] might be very happy selling [his] business for $9 million and owning 50% of the company.  [A] VC is not necessarily going to be happy getting $3 million for his 33% stake for which he invested $1 million.

[While that’s] a 3x return [] it’s still just $3 million and if the VC has a $300 million [fund] it is just 1% of the money [needed] to reach his “hurdle rate” of when he’s entitled to earn carry (e.g. big bucks).  It’s just too much time to spend [] for such a small total return.  Many VC’s would still let [a founder] sell []” but some would block the sale.  Mark Suster  Do You Really Even Need VC? July 22, 2009; http://www.bothsidesofthetable.com/2009/07/22/do-you-really-even-need-vc/

 

Dilution Benchmarks & Fundraising

Mark Suster Partner Upfront Ventures and former entrepreneur

Negotiations between entrepreneurs and investors include dilution and other fundraising terms.  “[] the “fairway” of [investor’s equity] is 25-33% per round [i.e., entrepreneurs’ dilution]. [] If [the entrepreneur is] “super hot” or “super experienced”, [he] can end up with much less dilution –in some cases 12-15%.  But this is the exception, not the rule.”

“[] [These] dilution numbers don't take an option pool into account [].  Options are additional dilution.”

“[] [Valuation can be driven up] ONLY if there’s [] competition [for] a deal.  [Investors stay honest when entrepreneurs] talk with multiple parties.”

Fundraising also requires considering how many future rounds are needed and expected total future dilution.  It’s not an arbitrary spreadsheet-driven exercise reflecting attaining profitability.  It requires “understanding [industry norms necessary] to build a successful Internet business and where [the company falls] on that spectrum given [its business type].”   Mark Suster,  8 Questions to Help Decide if You Should be Raising Money Now, February 17, 2011 and comments;  http://www.bothsidesofthetable.com/2011/02/17/8-questions-to-help-decide-if-you-should-be-raising-money-now/

 

Why VC's Block an Exit

Basil Peters angel investor and Principal Strategic Exits Corporation

“Most entrepreneurs don’t even know that a VC is likely to block an exit when they accept the VC’s money. [] VCs design their investment agreements to give them the power to block exits.”

“[] VCs will almost always block a sale where they only make a 3-4X return on their investment.  This could have easily been a 10X return for the angels and a 100X return for the entrepreneurs.

[] The winners [must] produce at least 10-30X return for the [VC] fund to perform respectably.

[] This propensity to block exits is one of the reasons that every company needs a clear exit strategy before [it approaches its] first investor.”  Basil Peters, How VCs Block Exits, August 28, 2010, http://www.exits.com/blog/how-vcs-block-exits/; Why VCs Will Block Good Exits;  http://www.angelblog.net/Why_VCs_Block_Good_Exits.html

High Valuations Can Limit Exit Opportunities

Josh Kopelman Partner First Round Capital and former entrepreneur

Kopelman advises that entrepreneurs who “[] try to maximize valuation [] in many cases [] might be shortsighted” because high valuations can limit exit opportunities.  “[] too many founders are not aware that they are shutting off the majority of exits -- and therefore increasing risks -- when they accept a high valuation.”  “[] the “unwritten term in the term sheet” [means] few VC’s will willingly part with a “winning company” (i.e., a company that is executing/performing well) for less than a 10x return.”  Thus, a VC could block an exit that could have been a fabulous payout for entrepreneurs and angels.   Josh Kopelman The Unintentional Moonshot, July 10, 2007, http://redeye.firstround.com/2007/07/the-unintention.html;  When the music stops... March 10, 2006;  http://redeye.firstround.com/2006/03/as_a_little_kid.html

Relationship between Option Pool Size & Price

Jeffrey Bussgang  venture capitalist and General Partner Flybridge Capital Partners and former entrepreneur 

 “This relationship between option pool size and price isn’t always understood by entrepreneurs, but is well understood by VCs.”  Bussgang lost a deal because the founder believed he got a better price (higher pre-money valuation) from a competing venture capitalist.  However because Bussgang’s competitor required a larger option pool, the founder received less stock than under Bussgang’s offer.  The founder took the competitor’s deal because he didn’t understand how the option pool calculation affected his ownership.

“[In response, Bussgang’s firm instituted a policy] to talk about the “promote” for the founding team rather than just the “pre”[-money valuation].  The “promote” [] is the founding team’s ownership percentage multiplied by the post-money valuation.”  The “promote” offers an “apples-to-apples” comparison of competing offers even if one offer has a lower pre-money valuation and  smaller option pool.  Jeffrey Bussgang, Mastering the VC Game –A VC Insider Reveals How to get from Start-up to IPO on your terms book, pg 131-133, copyright 2010